Well here we go again, this thing is looking pretty big right now and they are saying it's going to get bigger as it gets closer to Miami. Friday night is going to suck. I hope all you guys can get your masts down, boats out of the water and tied down somewhere safe before it hits.
I don't know where all the water is going to go, we are already saturated up here in Sebring, above average rainfall for the past 4 months has all the lakes overflowing already, so if Irma dumps another 12-18" rain on top of that, it's going to be ugly.
Good luck men of South Florida (and the Caribbean) , we are all counting on you! <img src="<>/smile.gif" alt="smile" title="smile" height="15" width="15" />
Good luck, Florida guys! Hopefully this will just turn away, especially away from any track that would take it towards areas still reeling from Harvey.
Mike
That thing is a scary monster at the moment - hurricane hunters recorded 187mph wind making it the second fastest recorded wind in a hurricane....which is also starting to spur a discussion about whether or not the saffir-simpson scale needs a category 6 (it currently stops at cat 5 which classifies hurricanes with winds over 157mph).
Some of the models deviated a couple of hours ago showing a more abrupt turn north north east just before it gets to FL...which would drive it back out into the Atlantic (where hopefully those highs will keep pushing it eastward). They're the minority of the models but fingers crossed!
I wonder if there's anything left of St. Marten, Barbados and the other islands it just went over.
Gonna be ugly come Sunday in Miami no matter which way it turns.
Just heard that they've ordered 100% evacuation of the Keys, and won't open any shelters there. Makes sense (a direct hit would put all of the islands under water), but have they ever ordered that before?
Undoubtedly there will be people that can't/won't leave, still hoping for a miss.
Mike
the storm surge in the keys will probably wash the place away... Definitely need the
GET THE F OUT
evacuation order. But yes, about 20% of them will stay, putting first responders at high risk to come bail their sorry butts out.
I'm on the fence about leaving at this point. The latest WX showed it a little more east of us on Monday which means it will still be really ugly, but possibly not catastrophic as the wind will travel over quite a bit of land (from Lauderdale) before hitting us. And there won't be much storm surge as the wind would be mostly offshore until it's past us
The Windy app, on the other hand, scared the sh&t out of me showing the eye grinding my town out of existence before running up to stomp on Orlando and then up near JAX.
These things are awful. It's very certain that really bad things will happen, but exactly where and how bad is still too much of a mystery far enough in advance to really react (other than, get off the Keys). Remember Irene? Took a weird track, didn't end up doing as much coastal damage as it could have (was still really awful), but caused flash flooding and destruction well inland, and up in the mountains! How do you avoid that???
Mike
Timbo, your more than welcome to evac to clearwater and stay w me if needed
seven 2 seven, 6 for too 39 thre fur (say no to spam bots)
I agree Mike. The forecast maps are great in one sense to get an idea of what might happen, but just because I'm not on the purple line of death doesn't mean I'm in the clear. A spawned F-2 tornado can wreck my house and leave the neighbor fine...
Charlie took a nasty right-hand turn and instead of leveling Tampa it ripped the roof off of about every house in Port Charlotte 75 miles further south. Caught a lot of people off-guard
I'm still hopeful this thing makes a further eastward curve and misses the east coast of FL, GA and NC but relying on hope is a poor strategy to prepare.
I can't talk my father-in-law into evacuating. He's right on the purple line of death right now.
Off to figure out how to secure the boat / trailer in case we do get 60+ knots of wind. Unfortunately, the storage yard doesn't have tie-downs. Chocking the wheels is about the only thing I think I can do... unless ya'll have other suggestions? Boat/trailer combined weight is about 2500#, but the Corsair F-24 has a lot of windage
Charlie took a nasty right-hand turn and instead of leveling Tampa it ripped the roof off of about every house in Port Charlotte 75 miles further south. Caught a lot of people off-guard
I'm still hopeful this thing makes a further eastward curve and misses the east coast of FL, GA and NC but relying on hope is a poor strategy to prepare.
I can't talk my father-in-law into evacuating. He's right on the purple line of death right now.
Off to figure out how to secure the boat / trailer in case we do get 60+ knots of wind. Unfortunately, the storage yard doesn't have tie-downs. Chocking the wheels is about the only thing I think I can do... unless ya'll have other suggestions? Boat/trailer combined weight is about 2500#, but the Corsair F-24 has a lot of windage
Mast down for starters. Did you see the pictures of what was left of the hurricane hole in Tortola where the charter companies all moved their boats? Even some of the cruising cats capsized bare pole and it looks like every boat is trashed.![[Linked Image]](http://sailinganarchy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Screenshot-2017-09-06-15.09.03-768x569.jpg)
I'm in Greenville, SC and even I am going to retrieve my J22 from Lake Keowee because it's slip gets beat pretty hard with a North breeze. It will be mast down in my yard on the trailer between buildings.
I've sheltered in that hole during a storm. I saw that picture yesterday posted by Chris Draper. I was kinda expecting some carnage. Sir Richard rode it out in his cellar on Nectar.
I have charters booked in March, and May out of Road Town and West end, and one in the works for October (this one will get cut). Most of these boats are privately owned and require insurance for these events. Question is, how many boats can get replaced and delivered in time for peak season. There was already strong orders for the manufacturers.
Anyone that needs a place to store your boat while you are escaping Irma. We have free storage available at Lake Lanier Sailing Club - just north of Atlanta.
email me for details - mikekrantz@mindspring.com
Not looking good . . .
Soggy Dollar Bar on Yost Van Dyke
![[Linked Image]](https://i.redd.it/sle1ia2gxckz.jpg)
I'm pretty far inland in the upper left corner of SC and the 11am forecast today has what's left of Irma right on top of us as a strong tropical storm just under hurricane strength and they're saying it will probably still be a Cat 1 through Columbia, SC as it makes it's way up the I26 corridor if that track holds. We've certainly never felt the need to prepare for weather like this as far inland as we live. The current forecast track is also potentially devastating looking for Charleston to Hilton Head, SC. This is potentially going to be rough for a lot of people in SC.
seven 2 seven, 6 for too 39 thre fur (say no to spam bots)
Thanks for the offer, we are going to sit tight at home and hope for the best, the only good thing is, they are forecasting it to go right over Sebring, and the hurricane's always turn east or west once they make landfall, so maybe it'll zig or zag away from us at the last minute. We're still bracing for a full on eye wall direct hit, but hoping it doesn't happen.
What is the ground like in the storage yard? Could you get some of those long screws from Home Depot to tie down the trailer? They don't work too well up here (too sandy) but might work in your area.
Very very sad! One of my favorite happy places. Not confident in any trips for 2018.
Yes, mast is down as I usually travel with it, so it's ready to hook up and go.
Lot is paved, so I can't screw down anything <img src="<>/frown.gif" alt="frown" title="frown" height="15" width="15" />
But I tied some wheel chocks on both sides of the tires, and dropped the tongue on the ground in the hopes that this will keep it from sailing around on the trailer. Being as light as it is (for the windage), it has rolled around once in a microburst thunderstorm.
I suspect my main concern is all the crap that will likely fly around and hit it. Couple of metal u-store-it buildings close by. Might block the wind (good), but could peel the roof off (bad) and sling those metal panels over the boat.
really sucks the tow vehicle is in the shop or else I'd probably move it somewhere... Not that being anywhere else around here is any safer, but hooked up to a truck might help?
I've yet to see the
right
ones at home depot - they have the pig tail type that will worm it's way out
These are the kind we use here in clwt that work well (not sure about in a 186 mph)![[Linked Image]](https://mobileimages.lowes.com/product/converted/026862/026862100047.jpg)
Yes, I've used those to secure the N20 in soft earth. Worked great.
We've got a limestone hardpan layer here about 8" under the surface, so it does limit getting those things dug in unless you get a pickaxe.
Wow, that's a bucket list place for me. Look at those poor Hobie Waves! That's a lot of damage (boats, buildings, docks, etc.); hopefully, everyone is safe there.
Mike
More bad news. Hurricane Jose (Cat 4) will hit the British and US Virgin Islands AGAIN in the morning. Double Whammy! Very Sad after viewing several hundred pictures of the existing damage.
Still heavy thoughts yet to come regarding Irma's impact to Florida, Georgia, Alabama, the panhandle and the east coast.
I just got this email from Voyage Charters who are located in West End Soper's Hole,Tortola, BVI. Provided for those who are interested. . .
It is 48 hours since Hurricane Irma impacted the British Virgin Islands and, as further information comes out, it is clear no part of the territory has been spared from the devastation. Both the Premier and Governor of the territory released statements confirming a State of Emergency is in effect and relief efforts will be co-ordinated under that basis.
http://www.bviddm.com/message-from-...
th-obe-following-hurricane-irmas-impact/ Direct communication with the islands is very limited and, at this time, our US reservations office has not been able to establish a line of communication to VOYAGE charters BVI personnel but we are receiving some updates via a shared sat phone . We do know the base managers and families are accounted for and someone also reported seeing other base staff safe and well.
From what appears to be reliable source, an on the ground report from the vicinity of the VOYAGE charters BVI base in Sopers Hole, describes extensive structural damage to docks, buildings and vessels including the ship yard where some of the VOYAGE fleet were stored. Although it will be many days before detailed damage assessments can be made we can only assume that tourist travel and conduct of business by VOYAGE charters BVI, will not be possible for the commencement of the season in October.
For guests with departures in October, the cancelation clause of their charter contracts will apply. A decision on following months will be made over the next few days as information becomes available from the managers of VOYAGE charters BVI David Beavis, from the US reservations office, will travel down to Tortola as soon as services and conditions allow, in an effort to assist colleagues and obtain accurate information for our charter clients.
At this time, we have faith that the British Virgin Islands, it's tourist industry and VOYAGE charters BVI will be restored. We hope any of our clients affected by cancelation will consider rescheduling to a later date which will allow VOYAGE charters BVI to look to the future.
We have received many offers from our clients and friends who are ready and willing to travel to the islands to provide physical support. Whilst we are sure this help will be needed at sometime, travel and communication services are too limited at this time. In the interim please consider making a donation to the BVI relief efforts through one of the reputable aid organizations such as the British Red Cross.
Wow, there's a reporter in Key West (10:20 PM on Saturday). How is he going to get out?
The west coast is hosed. Tampa will get nailed too. Even parts of Pinellas Park are going to see storm surge. Hang in there guys, Davis Island YC, Clearwater, too many connections here to mention them all.
And Jose right behind this? Wow...
Mike
seven 2 seven, 6 for too 39 thre fur (say no to spam bots)
Thanks for the offer, we are going to sit tight at home and hope for the best, the only good thing is, they are forecasting it to go right over Sebring, and the hurricane's always turn east or west once they make landfall, so maybe it'll zig or zag away from us at the last minute. We're still bracing for a full on eye wall direct hit, but hoping it doesn't happen.
Sometimes mist rain and damp isn't the worst thing ever - come home <img src="<>/smile.gif" alt="smile" title="smile" height="15" width="15" />
Seriously, Stay safe Tim.
How'd everyone make out, or do you even know yet?
Foxnews.com has a pic they say is Gilbert's in Key Largo, looks swamped but hard to say if there's actually damage other than flooding.
Mike
I saw quite a bit of footage in Islamorada, specifically, Whale Harbor. They were inundated with quite a bit of ocean water across the entire roadway from surge but the buildings are still standing.
They're estimating 25% of homes were destroyed, 60% have significant damage, and nearly 100% have some damage. That's just the Keys. Everyone seems to agree that it could have been even worse. Wow.
Mike
Due mostly to the great creator, and partly due to strong building code enforcement.... it appears the eye passed over our town with little major damage to buildings.
It's a landscaper's paradise though. Can't imagine more than a handfull of trees that aren't damaged or toppled.
Power just came back to our section (I'm near a hospital, so probably on a priority grid). It may be weeks before the outlying areas (the
estates
on 2.5 and 5 acre lots) get power. I think Port Royal where the blue blazer crew live has their own secret power station... built underground/underwater...
Two gas stations just opened up with power. Waits are over an hour. I suspect they'll be out of gas shortly. The Tesla stations are screwed for now.
Amazingly, the boat was parked across the street from the airport (where wind gusts to 145 mph were measured) and suffered no damage that I can see. Didn't even move the trailer. The wind must have been from just the right direction to be blocked by adjacent storage buildings. Can't get in the yard yet (no power to gate), but kid ran in there and snapped photos.
There was a kayak on a trailer (couldn't have weighed more than 100 lbs) that didn't get moved, either.... talk about dodging the bullet!
Despite how lucky we were, I'm still happy I evacuated across the state. Only had 80 mph winds there... But I had to be close enough to make it back on one tank of gas... There were no gas stations open south of Orlando until today.
Not sure how Sebring fared as they probably got whacked with the toughest part of the storm winds. My folks had a tree branch poke through their bedroom wall on the second floor, but nothing major.
The utility company kept the water flowing (even when power was out) which was key, but the sewer system was out of power and started bubbling up from the manholes. Kids were playing in the water on the street.. Can anyone say
cholera
? Did they NOT notice it smelled like Burbon St. in New Orleans after Mardi-Gras?
Lots of cars on the side of the road out of gas. Even more huddled in little spots where the internet is working.
If the power/fuel situation continued for a few more days, I suspect the orderly recovery would be much less civil.
Thanks for all the prayers and positive energy! Hope all points north fared as well as we did....
Jay
I was on vacation and never returned.
no boards on my windows/doors
Thank goodness i have great friends who came by and took the tramp off my 6.0, moved my 5.5 hulls (that are barley strapped to a trailer) away from my house and removed the pop up temp garage (tent) that covers my 6.0
Dunedin was spared
no loss of life
pretty minimal damage to buildings
most damage i have seen was due to trees falling
as far as i know my damage to the exterior was 1 section of fence fell (that was already shot)
as long as i didn't get water inside ... sounds like i was totally spared
I return tomorrow to check for water, mildew, and any structural changes that may have happened