Which are the present weather conditions?
http:/
Looks like they might be able to race later this morning.
its forecasted to drop to 18 at 11am and then to 16 around noon.
It was honking at 5am, 33 sustained, gusting to 37.
Sorry 21 MPH
I use that noaa site all the time. Go to the lower left
Digital Forecast
and keep digging down until you get the southern tip of Florida only in view. See that at 10 am gusts will be close to 30 knots, at 1 pm gusts in the lower 20 knots.
30 to 35 at 5am??? All the boats still on the beach? <img src=
alt=
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I've found iwindsurf is usually more accurrate than NOAA, it looks like its dropped to the point were they can race.
http:/
As of 10:08 a.m. the winds in the area are 21 knots gusting to 23 knots. I am told they don't race if the wind is more than 22 knots (mph?) sustained. So it is a little iffy, but the wind is supposed to keep dying as the day goes on. The wind has already come down 5 knots from what it was earlier this morning.
We have heard there are going to be TWO races today.
25 knots is the max wind for the class rules, though it might have changed to 22.
actual readings from Molasses Reef Buoy, a couple miles from the race course
Molasses Reef Buoy
Conditions at MLRF1 as of
(10:00 am EST)
Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 19 kts
Air Temperature (ATMP): 62.2 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Continuous Winds TIME
(EST) WDIR WSPD
10:00 am N ( 11 deg ) 17 kts
9:50 am N ( 8 deg ) 17 kts
9:40 am N ( 6 deg ) 19 kts
9:30 am NNE ( 13 deg ) 19 kts
9:20 am N ( 7 deg ) 20 kts
9:10 am N ( 5 deg ) 21 kts
Previous observations MM DD TIME
(EST) WDIR WSPD
kts GST
11 16 9:00 am N 21 24 - - - - - - 60.6 - - - - -
11 16 8:00 am N 24 27 - - - - - - 59.9 - - - - -
11 16 7:00 am N 26 28 - - - - - - 60.4 - - - - -
11 16 6:00 am N 26 30 - - - - - - 62.1 - - - - -
11 16 5:00 am N 29 33 - - - - - - 63.7 - - - - -
11 16 4:00 am N 28 32 - - - - - - 66.4 79.5 - - - -
11 16 3:00 am N 24 26 - - - - - - 68.9 79.7 - - - -
11 16 2:00 am N 16 17 - - - - - - 71.6 - - - - -
11 16 1:00 am NW 11 15 -
The races have been canceled today -- the event is over, with seven races completed.
Somebody went out to the reef to check the wind and it was just too much.
What a shame, I had hoped for a great day of racing. I thought that the wind had backed down to 17 with gusts to 20. Oh well! Glen pulls out another big win.
I also wonder how that is going down with the competitors?
As of 11 a.m. the winds were 16 gusting to 18, according to the three offshore buoys between Key Largo and Marathon.
That is well within the class rules. At the warm up event in January, the boats went out on the last day in winds above 22 knots. They clocked down to @15-17 after the first race. Only 17 of the 65 boats made the start, but I thought they did so, because they knew that they could be in this position today.
Congratulations to Glenn <img src=
alt=
/>,
pity about the last day, but my money was on Glenn if they raced in big breeze any way.
Will look forward to seeing all the top Yanks try to take the title from Glenn in Australia at Lake Macquarie, it is a brilliant sailing location. No where near Glenns home water either, it's about 12 hours away.
I started to assemble the photos' with the results
Always interesting to see how the equipment choices play out as well as the sailing skills.
Mark
I'm getting an 'A'. <img src=
alt=
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When the Race Committee and/or the Organizing Authority decided to cancel the racing at 11 am on Friday many competitors were quite disappointed.
Since races could be started up until 2:00 pm, and since it took about 10-15 minutes to reach the starting line from the beach, the decision to cancel the racing at 11 am seemed premature. In addition, wind speed readings from the anemometer of the data station closest to the race course (and 50 feet off the water) were below the class maximum wind speed (22 knots) at 9 am, 10, and 11 am, and were dropping quickly. In fact, the readings were 21 knots at 9 am, 17 knots at 10 am, and 16 knots at 11 am. See attached or http:/
A statement on the worlds website reads,
At 1015 the RC sent a boat a couple of miles offshore to where racing would be held to assess the conditions on the spot. Winds at water level continued in the 19-22 knot range with gusts to 28. There was also a fairly severe and square chop setting up with standard waves at 4 feet with frequent sets of 3 waves in the 6 foot range. The OA was concerned with the safety of the sailors as well as the almost certain carnage to equipment that would have resulted if the races would have been held within the time available and Racing was Abandoned at 1100EST.
The data in this statement appears difficult to reconcile with the wind speed data recorded by the nearby data buoys, and many competitors wondered how the RC boat recorded its data. Many competitors also felt that they should have been allowed to evaluate the risks of breakage themselves and make their own decisions about whether to race or not.
Of course, hindsight is 20/20, safety of the competiors and their equipment is always a consideration in any regatta, and decisions by an RC will never please everyone. However, many competitors were left scratching their heads after the decision to cancel racing at 11 am on Friday.
Since races could be started up until 2:00 pm, and since it took about 10-15 minutes to reach the starting line from the beach, the decision to cancel the racing at 11 am seemed premature. In addition, wind speed readings from the anemometer of the data station closest to the race course (and 50 feet off the water) were below the class maximum wind speed (22 knots) at 9 am, 10, and 11 am, and were dropping quickly. In fact, the readings were 21 knots at 9 am, 17 knots at 10 am, and 16 knots at 11 am. See attached or http:/
A statement on the worlds website reads,
At 1015 the RC sent a boat a couple of miles offshore to where racing would be held to assess the conditions on the spot. Winds at water level continued in the 19-22 knot range with gusts to 28. There was also a fairly severe and square chop setting up with standard waves at 4 feet with frequent sets of 3 waves in the 6 foot range. The OA was concerned with the safety of the sailors as well as the almost certain carnage to equipment that would have resulted if the races would have been held within the time available and Racing was Abandoned at 1100EST.
The data in this statement appears difficult to reconcile with the wind speed data recorded by the nearby data buoys, and many competitors wondered how the RC boat recorded its data. Many competitors also felt that they should have been allowed to evaluate the risks of breakage themselves and make their own decisions about whether to race or not.
Of course, hindsight is 20/20, safety of the competiors and their equipment is always a consideration in any regatta, and decisions by an RC will never please everyone. However, many competitors were left scratching their heads after the decision to cancel racing at 11 am on Friday.
It's frequently difficult to reply to individuals who either were't present or who don't have all the facts.
Yes, races could have started as late as 1400. It takes a lot more than 10-15 minutes for the racers to get to the starting area - the process takes almost an hour to get them all in the water and sailing out. That's why the Sailing Instructions were very specific in stating that racing wouldn't start until at least an hour after the AP was lowered ashore. 1230 was discussed as the cut-off time to lower the AP ashore on Friday.
As to the wind and seas, I sure wish you were sitting with me 1.5nm off the beach Friday at 1100 in the area where racing would have been held. Yes, I was the individual who motored out there to assess conditions. Say all you want about the monitoring stations nearby, putting a boat on the course was the best solution - and I was out there from 1000 until 1130. I took wind readings 3 different ways: floating, anchored, and holding position with the engine relative to a crab trap. Floating, I was reading a consistent 17-20knots. Anchored, it was 19-23 gusting to 29. Holding position I read 19-26 gusting to 29 (two gusts over 31). I was using 2 calibrated windspeed instruments.
As to predicted windspeeds, we were briefed beforehand by competitors, event staff, the USCG, SailFlow, and the National Weather Service (NOAA) that wind forecasts for that part of the Keys were not as accurate as they could be. SailFlow seemed to provide the best forecast vs. observed that I saw during my two week stay in Islamorada. I won't debate what was posted by NOAA as observed conditions, but we did question thier forecasting. Again, putting someone on the course was the best decission.
The other thing I observed was the seas in the area. There was a steady steep-faced square chop of a consistent 4feet. About every minute there were sets of 3 at 6+feet. Standing in the powerboat, I frequently lost sight of the beach when in the troughs.
OK, I'll grant you that the windspeed dropped into the 19knot range by noon. But, let's get real - the waves would have sill been there. There would have been carnage on the course as far as boats and equipment are concerned, and perhaps injury. OK, ultimately it's up the the skipper to decide to race or not. But, the Organizing Authority made the right decission, with respect to safety first, with solid information and advice. Thanking them for a stellar event, organized and executed like a Worlds Championship should be run, would be your better course here.
Since races could be started up until 2:00 pm, and since it took about 10-15 minutes to reach the starting line from the beach, the decision to cancel the racing at 11 am seemed premature. In addition, wind speed readings from the anemometer of the data station closest to the race course (and 50 feet off the water) were below the class maximum wind speed (22 knots) at 9 am, 10, and 11 am, and were dropping quickly. In fact, the readings were 21 knots at 9 am, 17 knots at 10 am, and 16 knots at 11 am. See attached or http:/
A statement on the worlds website reads,
At 1015 the RC sent a boat a couple of miles offshore to where racing would be held to assess the conditions on the spot. Winds at water level continued in the 19-22 knot range with gusts to 28. There was also a fairly severe and square chop setting up with standard waves at 4 feet with frequent sets of 3 waves in the 6 foot range. The OA was concerned with the safety of the sailors as well as the almost certain carnage to equipment that would have resulted if the races would have been held within the time available and Racing was Abandoned at 1100EST.
The data in this statement appears difficult to reconcile with the wind speed data recorded by the nearby data buoys, and many competitors wondered how the RC boat recorded its data. Many competitors also felt that they should have been allowed to evaluate the risks of breakage themselves and make their own decisions about whether to race or not.
Of course, hindsight is 20/20, safety of the competiors and their equipment is always a consideration in any regatta, and decisions by an RC will never please everyone. However, many competitors were left scratching their heads after the decision to cancel racing at 11 am on Friday.
It's frequently difficult to reply to individuals who either were't present or who don't have all the facts.
Yes, races could have started as late as 1400. It takes a lot more than 10-15 minutes for the racers to get to the starting area - the process takes almost an hour to get them all in the water and sailing out. That's why the Sailing Instructions were very specific in stating that racing wouldn't start until at least an hour after the AP was lowered ashore. 1230 was discussed as the cut-off time to lower the AP ashore on Friday.
As to the wind and seas, I sure wish you were sitting with me 1.5nm off the beach Friday at 1100 in the area where racing would have been held. Yes, I was the individual who motored out there to assess conditions. Say all you want about the monitoring stations nearby, putting a boat on the course was the best solution - and I was out there from 1000 until 1130. I took wind readings 3 different ways: floating, anchored, and holding position with the engine relative to a crab trap. Floating, I was reading a consistent 17-20knots. Anchored, it was 19-23 gusting to 29. Holding position I read 19-26 gusting to 29 (two gusts over 31). I was using 2 calibrated windspeed instruments.
As to predicted windspeeds, we were briefed beforehand by competitors, event staff, the USCG, SailFlow, and the National Weather Service (NOAA) that wind forecasts for that part of the Keys were not as accurate as they could be. SailFlow seemed to provide the best forecast vs. observed that I saw during my two week stay in Islamorada. I won't debate what was posted by NOAA as observed conditions, but we did question thier forecasting. Again, putting someone on the course was the best decission.
The other thing I observed was the seas in the area. There was a steady steep-faced square chop of a consistent 4feet. About every minute there were sets of 3 at 6+feet. Standing in the powerboat, I frequently lost sight of the beach when in the troughs.
OK, I'll grant you that the windspeed dropped into the 19knot range by noon. But, let's get real - the waves would have sill been there. There would have been carnage on the course as far as boats and equipment are concerned, and perhaps injury. OK, ultimately it's up the the skipper to decide to race or not. But, the Organizing Authority made the right decission, with respect to safety first, with solid information and advice. Thanking them for a stellar event, organized and executed like a Worlds Championship should be run, would be your better course here.
I've run through that area a good bit and can attest that the chop gets freakin' nasty when the wind is out of the North or North-east.
Brian,
I am glad that you are answering this one. I did post the facts.
BJsailor,
Thanks for explaining the process surrounding the decision to cancel racing on Friday. Of course, some (many?) competitors questioned the decision, so it is helpful to know more about how the decision was reached.
I'm sure competitors will continue to question the decision, but it's a done deal, so there isn't anything to do about it now (except debate it here on Catsailor :-).
To me it still feels like the decision was premature. As you said, the wind was diminishing throughout the morning and was under the max allowable speed at least by noon, if not by sometime between 1000 and 1130. And you noted that
1230 was discussed as the cut-off time to lower the AP
so that a race could be started before 2 pm. Thus, it is quite reasonable that people continue to wonder why racing was canceled at 1100 instead of waiting at least until 1230 or so.
I agree that in addition to the wind speed, the sea state should also be considered when evaluating whether to race, and I grant that I was not 1.5 nm offshore at 1100 on Friday in a position to evaluate for myself whether to race or not. However, safety is not a concern only for the RC. A-class sailors are not fools, and they take safety seriously. For example, on the last day of the January 2007 midwinters only 17 of 65 competitors went out to race because the conditions appeared windy from shore, but they turned out to be fine on the water. There were no breakdowns that required assistance from the safety boats and some of the best racing of the week occurred on that day. Thus, prior experience supports the conclusion that A-Class sailors themselves are quite responsible when it comes to safety.
It's likely that if a race had been held on the last day of the Worlds that many sailors would have decided not to participate, in which case only the best seamen from among the 98 best A-Class sailors in the world would have been on the water, and the ratio of safety boats to competitors would have been even higher than the 1:15 required by the A-Class championship rules. Given that, speculation by the Organizing Authority about “almost certain carnage” that would have resulted is debatable at best.
You stated that rather than questioning the decision to cancel racing I should thank the Organizing Authority for running a stellar event. I did thank the Organizing Authority for running an excellent event, and I thank them again here. They did a good job. However, the purpose of my post was to answer a query about how the decision to cancel racing at 1100 on Friday was received by the competitors, and it say that it was not embraced universally. It was a debatable call, and Catsailor is a useful forum to debate it.
While I understand your position about the decision to cancel the racing, I take exception to the last sentence of your post where you insinuate that it is bad form for me to report how the decision was received by the competitors. Although “safety” and “security” are sometimes invoked these days by governing authorities to squelch debate, I hope that attitude has not reached sailboat racing, and that open debate, constuctive criticism, and feedback from the comeptitors will be encouraged, so that the best events possible can be run.
mello29, since we're both newbies here I'll sit back and get more of a feel for the forum. Please don't take exception - this is an open internet forum and we all welcome the input, whether we agree with it or not. Actually, I don't disagree with what you posetd - it was your perspective from where/when you were. Mine happened to be different with different observations of the conditions. Considering that, I also don't disagree with your conclusions either. Again, it was a difference of what was observed to reach our conclusions. Actually, all I was doing was reporting the conditions, not making the decisions - how's that for a cop-out on taking responsibility:-)
Come to Houston, I'll buy drinks!
I was standing on the beach watching BJ's boat go out, with my gear and A-cat right there ready to gear up. At 8 AM it had been really nasty/gearbusting, by 9AM still nasty, by 10 AM not so much. BUT it takes an hour to get all the boats out through the launch ( a two boat cut and a one boat cut in the rock wall with enough beach wheel helpers). AND the RC could then really set up & run only one race. I was ready to go out... but many had begun packing up at 9 AM. I ain't gonna chip my teeth at them, but Lars Guck could (I'll bet he won't).
CLASSIC no-win situation for the RC and OA.
With racing this close coming into the end of a championship, if you call it early, you look like you're favoring one sailor; if you do go out in iffy conditions, you look like you're favoring the other.
When the weather and time are on the hairy edge of being acceptable, this really is difficult to balance. I don't envy the PRO, jury or OA with this one...
From what I've read, a tremendous job was done by all the volunteers, and Glenn and Lars certainly kept it interesting for us.
Mike